Max Holloway vs. Charles Oliveira Prediction
Max Holloway takes on Charles Oliveira at UFC 326 on Saturday, March 7, 2026. Based on 10,000 simulated outcomes, we deliver expert predictions, betting lines, and key analysis for this lightweight bout.
Victory Probabilities 10,000 simulations
Our prediction engine delivers an objective assessment of each fighter's likelihood of victory, generated from 10,000 fight simulations.
Latest Betting Lines
| Market | Max Holloway | Charles Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -225 | +172 |
| KO/TKO | +170 | +850 |
| Submission | +1500 | +330 |
| Decision | +200 | +1200 |
| Over/Under 3.5 Rounds | O +108 | U -136 |
Max Holloway Wins
Following rigorous modelling, our system projects Max Holloway with a 65.3% chance of victory, compared to Charles Oliveira at 34.7%. Based on our projections, Max Holloway holds the edge over Charles Oliveira at UFC 326.
Looking at the method of victory markets, Max Holloway by KO/TKO represents the most probable finishing outcome according to the current odds. This suggests the bookmakers expect power and striking to play a decisive role in this matchup.
Our analysis of the round totals market leans towards the Under 3.5 rounds at a 54.5% implied probability. The odds suggest this fight is more likely to end inside the distance, whether by stoppage or an early finish.
Summary
Our Max Holloway vs. Charles Oliveira forecast, powered by advanced simulation technology and up-to-date fight data, helps you make sharper betting decisions. Max Holloway is our projected winner with a 65.3% probability of victory at UFC 326 on Saturday, March 7, 2026.