UFC 311 takes place on Saturday, January 18, in California, and we have our best UFC predictions for the main and undercard and review the value UFC odds on offer.
Headlining the PPV card is the lightweight title fight between champion Islam Makhachev and Renato Moicano, who replaced Arman Tsarukyan at the last minute, and the co-main is the bantamweight title fight featuring Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov.
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UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano Main Card
Islam Makhachev vs. Renato Moicano
There is a case for Makhachev being the most dominant fighter in the UFC, and getting -450 odds is a generous price from bookmakers despite still being a short-priced favorite.
The 26-1 champion submitted Dustin Poirier to retain his belt last year, and that followed a knockout win over Alexander Volkanovski, so he has beaten some of the best fighters in the UFC on his way to the top, and we don’t see him slowing down.
The 33-year-old also has time up his sleeve, and we don’t think late replacement Moicano is good enough to dethrone him. Moicano was meant to fight Beneil Dariush, and he has never shied away from taking a fight at short notice.
He’s a dangerous fighter, and we thought he would beat Dariush. However, he’s not on the same level as Makhachev, who shorted to –1200 following the change in schedule. Those odds are tough to ignore, and we expect the champion to submit Moicano.
He’s too classy and too technically impressive for Moicano to avoid getting choked out.
Prediction: Islam Makhachev by sub
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Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov
Fighters have been actively avoiding facing Umar Nurmagomedov, but as the champion, Dvalishvili has no choice.
It’s rare to see the champion at +250, especially someone as good as Dvalishvili, but the hype around Nurmagomedov is insane, and it looks well-placed. The Russian is unbeaten at 18-0 following a decision win over Cory Sandhagen in August.
He has hidden power, and he showed that when knocking out Raoni Barcelos with an unassuming left hook following a missed knee. It was an impressive knockout, and Dvalishvili will need to take him down to have any chance of defending his title.
Bettors must respect Dvalishvili, but the Nurmagomedov train could keep chugging, and the –334 odds suggest his unbeaten run will continue.
Prediction: Umar Nurmagomedov by decision
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Jiri Prochazka vs. Jamahal Hill
Bookmakers have Prochazka vs. Hill at –110 for both fighters, and it’s hard to split the light heavyweights. However, we’re including Hill in our UFC 311 picks.
The American lasted just over three minutes before getting knocked out by Alex Pereira for the title, but Pereira is a completely different beast compared to Prochazka, and Hall could bounce back with a career-defining victory.
He showed his class when going five rounds with Glover Texeira, which followed knockout wins over Johnny Walker and Thiago Santos, and although Prochazka is a former champion, Hill has more upside.
We’re including Hill at –110 in our UFC predictions, and this betting market could see plenty of action on fight night.
Prediction: Jamahal Hill by decision
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Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder
Reiner de Ridder has had only one fight in the UFC for a submission win over Gerald Meerschaert, but Meerschart hasn’t been fighting at his best for some time.
Looking to take advantage of the situation is Kevin Holland, who is 26-12, and he should improve his record at UFC 311. He’s the better fighter, with more experience in the Octagon, and –150 is a fair price with UFC odds.
Holland might have been beaten by Roman Dolidze at UFC 307, but he has had time to recover and the 32-year-old should be back to his brilliant best.
Prediction: Kevin Holland by decision
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Jailton Almeida vs. Sergey Spivak
Jailton Almeida vs Sergey Spivak got promoted to the main card, and we believe it gives Almeida a time to shine.
The 21-3 heavyweight has a devastating submission game at his disposal, and although Spivak is also a one-punch fighter, this fight gives Almeida a chance to prove that he’s worth a UFC heavyweight title shot later in the year.
The 33-year-old scored a submission win over Alexander Romanov, which showcased his versatility, and that was a good bounce-back effort following a KO loss to Curtis Blaydes.
We expect the –450 favorite to take Spivak to the ground and score a submission victory at +125 odds.
Prediction: Jailton Almeida by Sub
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(Predicted winners in bold)
Bogdan Guskov vs Billy Elekana
Payton Talbott vs. Raoni Barcelos
Grant Dawson vs. Diego Ferreira
Jailton Almeida vs. Sergey Spivak
Zachary Reese vs. Sedriques Dumas
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UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano Early Prelims
(Predicted winners in bold)
Karol Rosa vs. Ailin Perez
Rinya Nakamura vs. Muin Gafurov
Ricky Turcios vs. Benardo Sopaj
Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Clayton Carpenter
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UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano Parlay
There is excellent value in our UFC 311 predictions, and we have four of our best picks for our UFC 311 parlay.
Headlining our bet is Makhachev to win the main event by submission at +100. The odds for Makhachev to win by submission are generous, so it will add value to the parlay. Adding all four options into one bet creates much better odds for bettors.
We’re also including Almeida by Sub (+125), Holland (+100), and Talbott by KO (-188). They are our four strongest bets on the UFC 311 card, and you can place your bets with the best UFC betting sites or the best UFC crypto betting sites.
